Wine investment: Has the market hit bottom?

Although the fine wine market has shown long-term value growth, the recent price correction has been relatively deep and prolonged. International merchant Bordeaux Index said prices for the ‘prime’ Bordeaux vintages of 2000, 2005 and 2009 have ‘stabilised significantly’ in recent weeks, however. Prices have dropped over 12 months, but 90% of the decline occurred in the first three quarters of this period (see chart below). Matthew O’Connell, CEO of Bordeaux Index’s LiveTrade online trading platform, said he felt prices in general were broadly reaching a bottom. [subscriber-content]He noted some good buying interest in blue-chip Burgundy and Champagne. A survey by Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, found that ‘most market participants feel that prices are close to bottoming out’. All major Liv-ex price indices fell in February, however. The Liv-ex 1000 index has fallen more than 25% after peaking in November 2022. It fell 13% in a Bordeaux-led market downturn after mid-2011, and subsequently saw a period of stagnation. O’Connell said a more uncertain outlook on possible interest rate cuts in 2025 ‘has slightly tempered our expectations around a near-term recovery in [wine] prices, [but] they can still stabilise for sure,’ he said. ‘Prices are going to have to stabilise before they can go up again.’ Liv-ex said stable pricing could help clear excess stock and attract new consumers. Some auction lots are still captivating bidders. Christie’s recently sold Comte Georges de Vogüé Burgundies in London. A five-bottle lot of Bonnes Mares 1962 (pictured) fetched £47,500, including buyer’s premium (high estimate: £9,000). Tim Triptree MW, Christie’s international director for wine and spirits, said: ‘These were superlative and historic vintages from de Vogüé from the 1950s and 1960s, which are rarely seen on the market.’ Triptree and Nick Pegna, global head of wines and spirits at Sotheby’s, said they were encouraged by recent results. The Sotheby’s-hosted Premiere Napa Valley auction saw sales of US$3.3m (£2.56m), up 10% on last year. Fine wine & spirits specialist Bordeaux Index kindly sponsors this section of Decanter , and provides its view on the market here every issue. It can be found at bordeauxindex.com . The price history of the wine market across the last 20 years or so shows a pattern of periodic breakout price changes followed by either flat prices or a material price decline, though it’s always by less than the corresponding price increase, such that in a big-picture context, prices have always increased over time. This pattern has also held true across 2020-2025, with the breakout price change in 2021- 2022 and a subsequent gradual drift. However, we are now seeing that while on the one hand prices are still higher than in 2020, the extent of the price decline is greater than would be expected from studying the historical trend. There are multiple factors driving this decline, including the higher interest rates environment and the impact on discretionary spending, though we do ultimately expect the point to correct itself and for prices to stabilise in the market before rising, as various participants re-engage with buying wine. iDealwine to open new outpost in New York City Online auction specialist iDealwine has said it will open a New York office in April, after reporting a year-on-year sales increase. Lionel Cuenca, iDealwine’s deputy managing director, said ‘momentum of the American market’ and client interest drove its decision to add a New York base to existing offices in Paris, Bordeaux, Beaune, Singapore and Hong Kong. Despite a difficult market, iDealwine said combined auction and retail turnover rose 6% in 2024 to €53.2m (£44.7m), excluding tax. Turnover at its International Wine Auction subsidiary rose 15%, to €39.1m, although average price per bottle sold fell 1.9% to €149. The highest-priced bottle was Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, Romanée-Conti 2020, ‘which was bought at auction for €20,375 by an Italian wine enthusiast’, said iDealwine. Demand for luxury goods down A challenging period for the fine wine market has partially reflected a slowdown in luxury asset purchases in general, according to the 2025 Wealth Report from global consultancy group Knight Frank. The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, which tracks 10 major collectibles from wine to cars, watches and art, dropped 3.3% in value in 2024. Fine wine was one of the worst performers, falling 9.1% over 12 months, although the art sub-index dropped 18.3%. Handbags performed best, up 2.8%. The wine sub-index, compiled by Liv-ex, a global marketplace for the trade, was still up 37.4% over 10 years. Knight Frank’s new report indicates subdued recent demand for luxury collectibles in general. ‘Right now, with equities’ impressive performance, relatively attractive cash yields, and strong traditional safe havens like gold, investors need good reasons to venture into the world of luxury,’ said Knight Frank. It noted, however, that last year’s wealth report identified ‘joy of ownership’ as a key motivator for investment in collectibles. In the 2025 report, a ‘Next Generation’ survey of 1,788 wealthy 18- to 35-year-olds asked which luxury asset this group would most like to own. Among respondents, 4.4% said wine, 12.4% said art and 29.8% said high-end property. Yet, Knight Frank said, experiences were key. ‘If our respondents were to receive a substantial windfall, almost half said they would spend the money on experiences rather than material possessions.’ [/subscriber-content] [breakout] Disclaimer: Decanter's Marketwatch pages are published for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Wine prices may vary and they can go down as well as up. Seek independent advice where necessary and be aware that wine investment is unregulated in several markets, including the UK. [/breakout] Related articles Wine investment: Top-tier Burgundy prices soften Wine investment: Market malaise hits Bordeaux prices Wine investment: Top Champagnes regain their fizz

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Wine investment: Has the market hit bottom?

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