There was a ‘sharp correction’ in the secondary market for single malt Scotch whisky from October last year to January 2025, said Noble & Co.
Its whisky intelligence reports offer one barometer of the market and are mostly based on UK auction sales, alongside some data from auctions in other key hubs, such as Hong Kong.
Its latest report found total transaction value for single malt Scotch whisky fell by ‘a staggering 53%’ in the four months to 31 January 2025, versus the same period of the previous year.
Average bottle prices fell, and volume sales also dropped by 21% year-on-year, it said. High-end collectors have retreated from the scene, at least temporarily.
Its report said, ‘A continued retreat from high-value sales – particularly bottles over £10,000 – reveals a shift in collector behaviour, with top-end buyers and owners either stepping back or withholding stock, leading to a significant contraction in the premium segment.
‘The result has been a reshaping of the market dynamic, with mid-tier and lower-value whiskies now dominating the share of sales by both volume and value.’
Recovery on the cards?
Prices recovered slightly in January, but this is traditionally a quiet month for sales and so it’s too soon to talk of a recovery, said Noble & Co.
Other ‘small signs of market recalibration’ during the reporting period included fewer lots going unsold in the auction room.
‘This is a positive for the market as it suggests the supply and demand imbalance is getting tighter and prices may be falling to levels that result in buyers being drawn back in,’ said Noble & Co’s report.
Higher interest rates and global economic uncertainty have created a more muted atmosphere across luxury collectibles in general, noted the group – a trend also highlighted recently by global consultancy group Knight Frank in its 2025 wealth report.
Whisky has still completely changed its market context in the past decade, with rare bottles becoming increasingly desirable for collectors worldwide.
Knight Frank’s whisky index, compiled by the Rare Whisky 101 group, dropped 9% in value in 2024, yet it was still up by 192% over 10 years. It outpaced other collectibles, from art to handbags and luxury watches.
The Macallan leads the way
In the single malt Scotch auction world, Noble & Co’s data showed The Macallan accounted for nearly £30m of single malt Scotch transaction value registered by Noble & Co in the two years to 31 January 2025.
The Macallan’s relative lead over other brands shrank slightly in this time, but its nearest challenger was Springbank, accounting for a little more than £5m.
Rare Japanese whiskies and those from the US have also been attracting greater collector interest in recent years.
Despite a more sedate market, individual bottles can still command big sums. A limited-edition bottle of Old Rip Van Winkle bourbon fetched a record $125,000 (£96,450) at a high-profile Sotheby’s auction in March.
This month, Sotheby’s will auction a 54-year-old Bowmore whisky in a decanter designed by Aston Martin. Bidding on ‘Bowmore ARC-54: Iridos Edition’ will run from 15 to 29 May, with an estimate of £140,000 – £220,000 ($180,000 – $300,000).
